THE PHILIPPINES’ MVP: ROXAS OR BINAY?

Who is the country’s Mandated Vice-President (MVP)? Who got the mandate from the Filipino people to be Vice-President of the Republic of the Philippines? Is it Mar Roxas or Jojo Binay? Or is it too early to call?

I did a quantitative analysis of the data provided by PPCRV and by the Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III Facebook page.

As of today, Binay is beating Roxas by more than 800,000 votes but the Aquino-Roxas camp and the Liberal Party are telling the press that Roxas would eventually win by 100,000. Where will the 900,000 extra votes come from? This made me curious and I decided to study it myself. This is what I found out.

The net vote gain of 900,000 in favor of Roxas over Binay will come from any or all of the following:

1. The unremitted returns from the 15 regions;
2. The unaccounted or unreported returns from Overseas Filipinos; and
3. The results of the redo of the elections in areas where there was “failure of elections” declaration.

ON THE UNREMITTED RETURNS FROM 15 REGIONS

In the NCR (National Capital Region) - 97.85% of the votes have been counted and reported. This means that only 2.15% of the votes remain unremitted. In this region, Binay obtained about 51.7% of the votes while Roxas got about 35.49%. It is safe to assume that Binay would even add more net votes.

In the CAR (Cordillera Administrative Region) - 85.27% of the votes have been remitted, so 14.73% are still unreported.. In this region, Binay obtained 26.97% of the votes while Roxas obtained 25.63%. Again, Binay would most likely gain more net votes.

In Region 1 (Ilocos Region) - 12.5% of the votes are still unremitted. So far, Binay obtained 37.78% of the votes while Roxas got35.33% in the region. Expect Binay to obtain additional net votes.

In Region 2 (Cagayan Valley) - 8.04% of the votes remain unreported. Of the votes reported, Binay obtained 55.68% while Roxas got 27.36%. It is even safer to assume that Binay would get more net votes in this region.

In Region 3 (Central Luzon)- 9.12% are unremitted. So far, from the reported ones, Binay got 41.86% while Roxas obtained 40.99%. Again, in here, Binay should gain more.

In Region 4A (Calabarzon) - 8% are unremitted. In the remitted ones, Binay obtained 52.11% while Roxas got 35.60%. More net gain votes for Binay expected.

In Region 4B (MIMAROPA) – 10.95% remain unremitted. Currently, Binay is ahead with 37.16% vs. Roxas with 36.61%. Binay projected to gain more.

In Region 5 (Bicol) – 9.63% are still unremitted. The voters also have Binay leading with 42.16% compared to Roxas’ 39.34%. Also more net votes for Binay.

In Region 6 (Western Visayas), the story is a little different. 10.22% remain unaccounted for but for those reported, Roxas garnered 64.06% while Binay only got 20.27%. So, I expect that in this region, Roxas would have a substantial net gain.

In Region 7 (Central Visayas) the story is the same as Region 6. Roxas got 58.46% while Binay garnered 25.56% of the votes remitted. So, expect the same results as to the 17% still to be remitted. A big net gain for Roxas.

In Region 8 (Eastern Visayas), somehow, Binay is preferred over Roxas. The former obtained 41.04% while the latter got 37.24%.. So, for the 13.09% remaining, expect Binay to gain more net votes.

In Region 9 (Zamboanga Peninsula) – 11% are still unremitted. Of the 89% remitted, Binay got 48.22% while Roxas obtained 34.55%. Again, Binay is expected to gain more net votes.

In Region 10, (Northern Mindanao) where 88.47% already counted, Binay was preferred by 39.5% while Roxas was preferred by 36.9%. With 11.53% remaining, Binay would certainly gain more net votes.

In Region11, (Davao) - only 6.12 are unremitted. For the reported ones Binay obtained 50.64% while Roxas got 34.65%. So, more net gains for Binay.

In Region 12 (SOCCSKSARGEN) - 5.16 remain unremitted. But for the reported ones,47.79% went for Binay and 31.96% for Roxas. Expect another net gain of votes for Binay.

In ARMM (Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao) where 71.58% already counted, Binay got 48% of the votes while Roxas only placed 3rd garnering 16.54%. Even Legarda got more votes in the area.

In CARAGA, Roxas is leading with 40.4% compared to Binay’s 32%. For the 10.02 remaining we should expect Roxas to have a net gain of votes here.

Based on the above, Binay is preferred as Vice-President in 12 of 15 regions. Only three preferred Roxas. Binay obtained 12 1st place regional votes and 3 2nd place regional votes so far. Roxas got 3 1st places, 11 2nd and 1 3rd place. If this were the National Basketball Association (NBA), Binay would be MVP (Most Valuable Player).

The Ilocanos, Pangalatots, Ibanags, Igorots, Cagayanos, Zambalenos, Batanguenos, Tagalogs, Bicolanos, Tausogs, Maranaos, Davaoenos, Chabacanos,Zamboanguenos and other regional/ethnic groups overwhelmingly went for Binay. The whole of Luzon and most of Mindanao preferred Binay as their Vice President. While the Western and Central Visayans understandably went for Roxas, the Eastern Visayans still preferred Binay.

VOX POPULI VOX DEI. The Voice of the People is the Voice of God. The voices are expressed in so many regional dialects, but in our democracy each voice or vote counts, so whoever gets the most votes wins regardless of whatever dialect the voter speaks.

I made a computation. Based on my projections, Roxas would be lucky to obtain a net gain of 100,000 votes. Even if Roxas retains his proportionate lead in the 3 regions that he is leading, and ties Binay in all the 12 regions that Binay is leading, his net gain would not exceed 400,000. Even if the trend is reversed and he obtains the proportionate share which Binay would have gotten and the latter getting his for the unremitted ones, including his expected net gain in his bailiwicks, his net gain votes would be less than 700,000. In all the scenarios, the net votes would not be sufficient to cover the 804,000 vote lead of Binay. So much harder to obtain a net gain of 900,000 votes.

THE UNACCOUNTED OVERSEAS FILIPINOS.

Roxas is preferred over Binay by overseas Filipinos, It will surely add net gain votes for the former but I don’t think it would be substantial enough to catapult Roxas to be the MVP.

“FAILURE OF ELECTION” AREAS

Most of the areas declared as “failure of elections” are in Muslim Mindanao. As analyzed above, Roxas was even running third with Legarda second, and Binay first in that part of the world. How can Roxas expect to gain higher votes than Binay there? Unless, like in the past, there would be coercion, intimidation, cheating, or because President-elect Aquino would ask them too, so they might oblige. Regardless, everything considered, Roxas would not get additional net votes in those places.

I endorsed, campaigned and voted for the Noynoy-Mar ticket looking at the future. I thought that Mar would be a good partner of Noynoy in running the country. But the mandate of the Filipino people seems to be going Binay’s way. It looks like the MVP would be JOJO BINAY.

For Mar, it would just be a “suspended success”. He could still be Noynoy’s partner by being the former’s informal adviser in the first year (due to the prohibition of appointment) and being his Executive Secretary (Little President) for the next 5 years. If he performs well with humility, honesty, honor and together with Noynoy giving greater hope for the people, he could still end up being President after Noynoy.

I am not surprised about Binay’s success. I will tell you why in my future blog.