Thursday, February 25, 2016

Clinton’s Path To Victory

Hillary Clinton is perceived by many as the most qualified and the most ready candidate for President of the United States. I share this opinion and so does President Barack Obama.

In fact, I even preferred her to Obama in the 2008 Democratic Primary elections. I have written a couple of blogs on Hillary’s run for President and getting elected earlier.

The caucus/primary season has just started and so is Hillary’s path to getting nominated and then elected as the first woman President of the United States. The recent Iowa caucuses earned her a first victory. It is a very slim margin (Clinton: 49.9%; Sanders: 49.6%). It was expected to be very close based on surveys but a WIN is still a WIN for Hillary.

The next will be the primary in New Hampshire, which will be held on Tuesday, February 9, 2016. Hillary’s opponent Bernie Sanders is projected by the polls to win in this State – a neighbor of Sanders’ home state of Vermont. The Clinton campaign is determined to be competitive anyway because the delegates will be allocated proportionately. Besides it has already built an organization for an effective and efficient ground.

The coming events on February 20th and February 27th (Nevada and South Carolina, respectively) are quite significant. I predict them to signal Hillary’s dominance of the Democratic primary process.

My prediction will be confirmed on March 1, 2016 when the Democratic party will hold what is called “Super Tuesday”.  The following States will have their primaries on the same day:  Alabama, Alaska, American Samoa, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, and Wyoming. Except for two or three States, Clinton is projected to win overwhelmingly in most of the States.

Primaries in more States on March 5, 6, 8, 12, 15, 19, 22, and 26 will follow this.  Clinton is also favored to win in most of these states.

To win the Presidential nomination, one must have 2383 delegates. These delegates are usually pledged and uncommitted arising from the caucuses and primaries, and what they call “Super Delegates. The latter is usually composed of elected officials of the party such as Senators, Governors, Congressmen and pre-designated VIPs of the party.

There are over 700 Super delegates. As of today, the majority of them are already committed to Clinton. Only 2 so far are committed to Sanders. It is expected that some of them will commit to the same candidate that their respective States vote upon during the caucuses/primaries.

MORE (Message, Organization, Resources)

In order to win in this battle for Presidential nomination and election, one must have the right resonating Message. Sanders’ is a Revolution to install “Democratic Socialism”. It advocates more involvement by the Federal Government especially in the area of Healthcare (Universal Single Payer System) and Education. It will be funded by taxes from the middle and upper classes. Many perceive it as “impractical” proposals.

Clinton’s Message is offering a leader of experience and one who gets things done – ready to be Commander-in-Chief from day One. She offers continuity and stability. She seeks to confront the “inequalities” – women, racial, income, etc.

Clinton’s Organization, which has been built and nurtured over the years, has an advantage over that of Sanders. Clinton also has the support of incumbent Democratic leaders.  They have their own local precinct level organizations that can be mobilized to deliver the votes.

Clinton and Sanders have the Resources to mount a long national primary campaign. Sanders has been relying on contributions coming from small donors. Clinton sources hers from both small-time and big-time donors.

Resources help finance the delivery of the Message (Ads) and the efficiency and effectiveness of the Organization.

Hillary Clinton has the right and resonating Message. She has a very effective and efficient Organization managed by proven political and election experts. She has sufficient Resources to mount a successful campaign.
Most importantly, she has former President Bill Clinton on her side!

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