Thursday, November 12, 2015

Probabilities: 2016 Philippine Presidential Predictions

The 2013 national elections in the Philippines was a gauge of PNoy’s and his “Daang Matuwid” performance. I used the resulting numbers to analyze how it would affect the political climate in the very near future.

“In a previous column/blog, I did an analysis of the results of the 2013 Senatorial Elections. The numbers reflected real votes counted and they amounted to millions. In the battle of coalitions, Team PNoy (Daang Matuwid) clobbered VP Binay’s UNA. There were nine (9) winners belonging to Team PNoy while there were only 3 among UNA candidates. 

A deeper analysis of the results in the regions and the bailiwicks of the leaders would give you very interesting results.


The Visayans and the Bicolanos delivered 10 winners for Team PNoy and only 2 UNA. The Mindanao provinces including the Muslims delivered 9-3 while NCR and all the Regions north of it delivered 8 – 4.

The Bicolanos made sure that 7 of the 9 UNA candidates led by Estrada and Enrile would not make it to the Magic 12. The Ilonggos and the Cebuanos also made sure that 7 out of 9 UNA candidates led by Estrada and Enrile would not make the winning 12.  

What this meant was that the Visayans led by Roxas and Drilon delivered to deserve the 2016 Presidential endorsement and the Senate Presidency, respectively.  It also meant that the Bicolanos led by Robredo and LP followers delivered to deserve and reserve the Vice Presidential seat for their region in 2016.


In Makati (Binay’s Bailiwick), Team PNoy had 8 winners while UNA only had 4. In fact, Nancy Binay was only No. 3 and Jack Enrile No. 17. In San Juan (Estrada’s Bailiwick), Team PNoy had 8 winners while UNA 4. JV Ejercito Estrada was only No. 2, Nancy Binay No. 14, and Jack Enrile No. 18. In Cagayan (Enrile’s Bailiwick), the results are the same – Team PNoy 8, UNA 4. But Jack Enrile was No. 1, Nancy Binay No.2, JV E. Estrada, No. 8.

In Tarlac (PNoy’s Bailiwick), Team PNoy had 9 winners, UNA 3. In Iloilo (Drilon’s Bailiwick), Team PNoy had 10 winners, UNA only 2. In Capiz, (Roxas’ Bailiwick), Team PNoy had 11 winners, UNA only 1.

Based on this analysis, there is a desire by the Filipino voters for Daang Matuwid to continue; that a Visayan deserves to be the next President, and someone from Bicol should be Vice President.”

The Certificates of Candidacy filed at COMELEC show the following:

Presidential Candidates: (Major and COMELEC-recognized):

1.             Mar Roxas                                 (Region: VISAYAS)
2.             Jejomar Binay                            (Region: Metro Manila)
3.             Grace Poe                                 (Region: VISAYAS / Fairfax, Va., USA)
4.             Miriam D. Santiago                   (Region: VISAYAS)
5.             Roy Señeres                              (Region: VISAYAS / Overseas)
6.             Augusto Syjuco, Jr.                    (Region: VISAYAS)

Note: Mayor Rod Duterte of MINDANAO might still change his mind and join the fray.

Vice Presidential Candidates: (Major and COMELEC-recognized):

1.             Leni Robredo                 (Region: BICOL)
2.             Gringo Honasan             (Region: BICOL)
3.             Chiz Escudero               (Region: BICOL)
4.             Bongbong Marcos         (Region: ILOCOS)
5.             Alan Cayetano                (Region: Metro Manila / BICOL)
6.             Antonio Trillanes              (Region: BICOL)


I predicted that the next President would come from the VISAYAS.  A careful look at the major presidential candidates show that as of today, there is about .833 (5 out of 6) probability that indeed the next President would come from the VISAYAS.

I also predicted that the next Vice President would come from the BICOL Region. Again, a careful look at the list of major VP candidates, it is also showing that the probability that the next Vice President would come from the BICOL Region is about .833 (5 out of 6).

It is as if the presidential candidates from the VISAYAS and the VP candidates from BICOL read my analysis and predictions, hence, decided that he or she could be the “chosen” one.

There are other parts of the predictions that I made, however. I wrote that the Presidential and VP candidates from the VISAYAS and BICOL regions respectively, must be endorsed and/or anointed by PNoy, continue the “Daang Matuwid” programs, and be the standard bearers of the Liberal Party and its allies.

Mar Roxas who is from the VISAYAS is the anointed one by PNoy to be the next president. Leni Robredo who is from BICOL is the anointed one by PNoy to be the next Vice President.

Roxas and Robredo are lucky beneficiaries of PNoy’s popularity. They are fortunate inheritors of the “Anti-Corruption” and “Daang Matuwid” Message. They are both happy heirs to the formidable and awesome Liberal Party political Machinery, the “Yellow Army”, the informal and personal DILG and government bureaucracy, and hosts of non-government organizations (NGOs), business groups and many other sectors.

Of course, accompanying the Message and Machinery are the Monetary, Material, Manpower and Management resources necessary to efficiently and effectively deliver the Message and mobilize the Machinery.

In 2010, I endorsed and campaigned for the presidential candidacy of PNoy. I did it because I thought he was bringing Hope, Honesty, Humility, and Honor to the presidency. I was not mistaken!

For 2016, PNoy wants to continue the gains made during his presidency and his “Daang Matuwid” programs. He wants the Filipino people to follow his lead by voting for Roxas and Robredo!

No comments:

Post a Comment