Wednesday, July 15, 2015

Presidency = Money, Machinery, Manpower, Message, Messenger, Management

I will be voting in two presidential elections in 2016 – one for President of the United States of America, and the other for President of the Philippines. This is resulting from my being a dual citizen.

I was also lucky to have had the opportunity to participate in several presidential and senatorial election campaigns in both countries.

It should be safe to say that I was also a keen observer of how national candidates could win in elections in either country.
 As I have explained in my previous columns, to be competitive in presidential elections, one must have what I call the M’s – Money (material resources); Machinery (organization up to the precinct level); Manpower (volunteers and paid employees); Message (Theme, PR, Ads, promotions); Management (Planning, Leading, Organizing and Controlling); and Messenger (credentialed candidate carrying the 4 Hs – Honesty, Hope, Honor, Humility).

In the United States, there are now 33 Republican (17 serious) declared presidential candidates. Four more are expected to announce their candidacies very soon. In the Democratic Party, there are 17 (4 serious) declared and exploratory candidates.

Which one survives in their respective primaries is very dependent upon how he or she can efficiently and effectively acquire, manage, and utilize the above-mentioned M’s to deliver the message and to obtain and deliver the votes.

In a capitalist democracy like the United States, there has been a lot of emphasis on the raising and spending of Money. This is especially after the SCOTUS ruling that

“Political spending is protected under the First Amendment, meaning corporations and unions could spend unlimited amounts of money on political activities, as long as it was done independently of a party or candidate.”

This is one big reason that, of all the Democratic presidential candidates, Hillary Clinton is predicted to be the party’s nominee. Just look at this report: “Among Democrats, Clinton’s lead is colossal. She had 72 percent of Democratic millionaires, and a sizable 23 percent of independent millionaires and 5 percent of Republican millionaires.”

In fact, Clinton is the top pick among 31 percent of millionaires followed by former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush with 18 percent.

That’s just counting the millionaires. How about Clinton’s support among the billionaires?

In an interview, Warren Buffet, the third richest man in the world said, “I would bet even money that Clinton would win the presidency in 2016.”

Let me mention a few of the billionaires supporting Clinton: Alice Walton of Wal-Mart, George (father) and Jonathan (son) Soros, Laura Ricketts (owner of Chicago Cubs), Tom Steyer (The Green Billionaire), Steve Mostyn and Amber Anderson Mostyn, Tim Gill, Sean Parker (Tech investor), Alida Messinger (youngest daughter of John D. Rockefeller, Haim Saban (Entertainment Executive), Pat Stryker (Philanthropist), Nick Hanauer (Venture capitalist), S. Donald Sussman (newspaper owner), Jeffrey Katzenberg (CEO, Dream Works Animation).

The Republican candidates also have their group of millionaire and billionaire supporters led by the Koch brothers.

In the Philippines, the same type of financial supporters are expected but on a lesser degree.

In the 2010 presidential elections, it was to have been a battle of monetary resources. NP candidate Senator Manny Villar, a self-made billionaire, poured the required resources. LP candidate Noynoy Aquino had Cojuangco family support led by billionaire Tony Boy Cojuangco, the business community led by Cesar Purisima and of course, the Yellow group matched Villar’s resources. Erap Estrada still had his loyal financiers. Lakas-CMD candidate Gilbert Teodoro was banking on the substantial support from then President GMA. It never came.

Of course, the other M’s also played major roles in the eventual victory of Noynoy.

For the 2016 Presidential elections, the only declared candidate so far is VP Jojo Binay. The assumption is that he has been preparing for it and has amassed an amount sufficient to mount an effective campaign. The freezing of his and his alleged dummies’ bank accounts could reduce his campaign pot substantially. My barber suspects that “dirty” money from the “Lords” might find their way Into the campaign.

Of all the other potential candidates, Mar Roxas is the only person I know who can launch a very effective and efficient campaign because he has personal and family (Roxas-Araneta) resources, funding from friends, and business colleagues. The LP resources would increase it substantially. A PNoy endorsement would raise it exponentially.

The survey that could help would be that taken a few days before the elections. The only reliable one is the actual election. Until then, the battle is about delivering the Message by the right Messenger, and moving the Machinery and the Manpower to deliver and protect the votes by efficient and effective Management.

Unfortunately, it takes MONEY.

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