Thursday, April 23, 2015

Talks, Thoughts, and Tiffs at the Barbershop

On the 2016 Philippine Presidential Elections

I reiterated my prediction that the next president will be the one endorsed by PNoy.  “Who would PNoy endorse?” the barbers asked.

If Mar Roxas wants and declares to run, PNoy will choose him. His basis is both subjective and objective.

Subjectively, PNoy knows Mar as a long time friend and party mate. Mar gave up his presidential ambitions to give way to PNoy in the 2010 presidential elections. Rebuilding the Liberal Party that his grandfather former President Manuel Roxas founded and later on led by his father Senator Gerry Roxas as party president, he invested time, money, and efforts to prepare it for good governance. Working together, PNoy and Mar won governmental control and both aggressively pursued the “Tuwid na Daan” or straight path to righteousness – giving the Filipino people a glimmer of hope to lick poverty, promote peace and attain prosperity.

Objectively, PNoy’s basis is even sounder than what political pundits would consider. Running for President entails effective and efficient Organization, Resources, and Propaganda/Public Relations (Image and Issues) campaign.


The Liberal Party – the party in power will support Mar Roxas. Its network and strength will be reinforced by most of the other parties that are part of their coalition. The party has built up to the Barangay/Precinct level an organization to promote and deliver the votes for Mar. His stint as DILG (Department of Interior and Local Government) Secretary provided him the opportunity to meet, interact, and access all local government officials as well as potential ones in meeting the challenges they face for, of, and by the governed. As government resources benefiting the constituencies are legally delivered through the local government units, relationships were formed and cemented to strengthen party machinery.

The built-in machineries established while he was Secretary of Trade and Industry as well as Secretary of Transportation and Communications cannot be discounted. The campaign machines that were mobilized to elect him a Congressman and later on a Senator with the highest number of votes in history will definitely be reactivated.


Financial and manpower resources are very important in presidential campaigns. They help build, maintain, and strengthen your Organization and feed your Propaganda or Public Relations campaign more efficiently and effectively.

Mar Roxas has the personal and family (Araneta, etc.) resources. He also has the party resources raised and accumulated over the years. If endorsed by PNoy, resources allotted legally to certain agencies will be released to subtly support Mar’s candidacy. Business money will favor his campaign. Professionals and overseas Filipinos will contribute to his campaign.

Propaganda (Image and Issues)

The issues will favor Mar Roxas. The continuity of PNoy’s Anti-Corruption or the Tuwid na Daan is a must. The Filipino people cannot afford to go back to the vicious cycle of electing bad officials to follow good ones. The election of Mar Roxas who is untainted and supported by PNoy who envisioned good governance with him will break that cycle. The continuity and stability of PNoy’s GPS (Grand Prosecution of the Sleazy) is guaranteed with Mar succeeding him as President.

Under the PNoy-Mar regime the Philippines became known as:
1.             The world’s 2nd fastest growing economy in 2015 (Bloomberg);
2.             The next Asian “Miracle” (World Bank);
3.             Posting trade surplus in 2015 (First time in 2 decades);
4.             Only nation upgraded of economic forecast (IMF Chief);
5.             The country with the most favorable growth rate in Southeast Asia in the next 5 years (OECD); and
6.             The nation with the economy to grow double in next decade (Think Tank).

Mar Roxas is very qualified. PNoy knows him to be honest, honorable and competent. He was a Congressman and Senator and therefore, knows how Congress works. He was Secretary of Transportation and Communications and therefore, familiar with the challenges facing the transfer of goods, people and data as well as the role of multimedia, electronic communications, TV, radio, and wireless communications. He was at the helm of the Department of Trade and Industry when the Philippines was positioning and preparing itself for a Global Economy, E-Commerce, and the broadening of Financial Markets.

His private sector experience as an Investment Banker and as a graduate of the Wharton School of Business should also help in these trying times.

Mar’s achievements as a close associate of PNoy in government, especially as DOTC and DILG Secretary are still unknown. We know of his involvement in projects at the disaster areas, the infrastructure development in many localities, in the peace and order processes in remote areas and many others. These will most likely be revealed and enumerated as soon as PNoy endorses him to be his successor.

Presidential Surveys

Polls, while relied upon to measure the popularity, preference and/or approval of candidates, are not the final determinant in elections. In the first survey of SWS (March 3, 2009) involving Binay and Roxas after they declared to be eyeing the Presidency for the 2010 elections, 1% preferred Binay while 20% preferred Roxas.  In the June 2009 survey Binay obtained 4% while Roxas got 20%. Senator Villar led the pact with 33%. On September 1, 2009, Roxas withdrew in favor of Noynoy while Binay withdrew in favor Erap Estrada. In the September 2009 survey, Villar got 37% while Noynoy obtained 60%. Erap trailed with 18%. Eventually Noynoy won but with Erap placing 2nd and Villar third.

Vice Presidential Surveys

In the 2010 Vice Presidential derby, SWS conducted a survey on December 5-10, 2009. Binay obtained only 10.2% while Roxas got 43.3%. Another polling was done on December 27-28, 2009 with Binay getting 14% while Roxas got 47%. In fact, the January 2010 survey resulted in Roxas getting 49% while Binay only got 16%. Almost all pundits that I know were quite confident that Binay would not catch up. Some involved in the campaign told me that Roxas was so confident he decided to focus on the election of Noynoy instead.

The April 16-19, 2010 SWS survey narrowed the gap – Roxas 39%; Binay 25%. With only about a month to go, 14% difference was still big to cover, right? No, the momentum which was on the side of the NOYBI (Noynoy-Binay) proponents led by some of Noynoy’s relatives could not be stopped.

Binay was espoused as a Cory Aquino boy, Cory’s choice and, therefore, could be trusted to be Noynoy’s VP. With no time and no deliberate campaign to expose him, and Roxas acting overconfident at the time, Binay became the Vice President.

I do not think this will happen again. Mar Roxas, the Liberal Party, PNoy if he endorses Mar, their supporters and the Filipino people should not and will not allow it!

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