Friday, November 9, 2012


In all my columns that refer to Presidential polling, I always refer to the surveys conducted by the conservative Rasmussen, Gallup, and Real Clear Politics (RCP). I particularly like RCP because it averages all the latest polls.

 The final survey published by Real Clear Politics showed the following Electoral College Map and data:

As shown above, the polling predicted that Obama would get 303 electoral votes while Romney would obtain 235 electoral votes.

True enough; Obama indeed garnered 303 electoral votes in last night’s tally with the final results in Florida still pending. If Romney wins Florida, it would be exactly as predicted.

How amazing has been the accuracy of the polling prior to the elections and the exit polls conducted after the voters had just voted. Partial election results combined with the exit polls that were analyzed by poll statisticians allowed the network to project the winner in each of the States.

I carefully followed the data as broadcasted by the CNN’s John King, NBC’s Chuck Todd, and other sources. At 10:13 p.m. on election night, using available data, I was tempted to project Obama’s victory.  I resisted because I thought that I should at least wait for the closing of the polls in California at 11:00 p.m.  (EST).

I made the projection on Facebook at 11:03 p.m. NBC News did it at 11:12 p.m. I was very proud of myself.

What is more revealing for me is what the exit polls also revealed. I got interested in how the minorities voted. The polls showed that 93% of the Blacks; 71% of the Hispanics; and 73% of the Asians voted for Obama.

As I commented on Facebook and in my other column, Filipinos are mostly identified as Asians but in some cases as Latinos because of their last names, their language and culture. Sometimes they could also be considered Blacks due to inter-marriage and the color of their skin (tall, DARK, handsome).

Filipinos in this election can really take credit or claim victory in so many ways.

The Presidential battle was indeed exciting and challenging for the protagonists. In a previous column I wrote that the determining factors would be Resources, Organization, and Image.

Both the Obama and Romney camps had the Resources. They were awash with funds that were used maximally up to the last minute. They both had efficient, effective and strong organizations. But as proven in the results, Obama seemed to have the better grass roots ground organization.

Image wise, Romney was able to project a better image as President after the first debate. It would seem that the momentum was his until stalled a little bit by the better performance of Obama in the second and third debates but, more so, by what we now know as a natural October Surprise.

The Super Storm SANDY created a deadly, damaging, and disruptive disaster. It gave the opportunity for President Obama to display Commander–in–Chief moments. He earned high bipartisan praises. New Jersey Republican Governor Christie worked with President Obama in this moment of crisis creating an image of bipartisanship in the highest level. The entire American electorate could see it, hear it and dissect it on national TV.

The “Act of God” displayed the needs, benefits and practicability of having a higher power like the Federal Government working with State and local governments in dealing with personal and individual problems.

While SANDY rendered many citizens without power, Romney was equally rendered powerless, helpless and virtually irrelevant for a few days before the elections.

Suddenly, the natural constituencies of Obama such as women, Blacks, the Hispanics, the Asians, and the young were inspired and motivated to move not only human hearts but human minds in order to protect their future.

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