Philippine Presidential Elections: Winners and Losers

I am reiterating my suggestion regarding the formidable Roxas-Poe tandem for the 2016 Presidential Elections in the Philippines. I am still convinced that on a long-term basis, it is best for the country, and for the Filipino people. The necessary consequence is also beneficial to PNoy’s legacy, to the candidacies of Roxas and Poe, the Liberal Party, its allied parties, the Yellow Army and supporters from the civil society.

Although certain circumstances and reactions since I made the suggestion are beginning to becloud my judgment, I am still sticking to it. I know of fewer facts to claim a more enlightened discernment.

This is also because PNoy and his anointed presidential candidate Roxas continue to believe in the viability and winnability of the tandem for the sake of continuity and long-term stability of “Daang Matuwid”. They have looked at Grace Poe from a different and higher perspective as well as greater empirical exposure that we just have to give them our trust.

Of course, I am fully aware that as PNoy and Roxas are patiently waiting for Grace Poe’s decision, they and the party organization already put Plan B and even Plan C in operation. Poe and her group remain as Option A but regardless of her decision, PNoy, Mar, and the LP machinery are ready, no doubt about it.

GRACE POE Options

Grace Poe on the other hand has her own options. First, she has to decide whether she should run for a higher office or not. Second, if she decides to run, should it be for President or Vice President? Third, if Vice President, should it be with Roxas or as an independent? 

Poe has a self-imposed deadline for her decision. She refuses to tell the press but I suspect that she must have told PNoy and Roxas. Winners appropriately do! Losers do not!

There are questions regarding Poe’s residency and citizenship qualifications. The spokesman for UNA and VP Binay openly brought it up. Some legal luminaries and experts that include a couple of law school Deans and one respected international lawyer support the views of the spokesman. VP Binay also shares similar views. A defeated Senatorial candidate named Rizalito David filed a case before the Senate Electoral Tribunal as well as one before the COMELEC.

A team of top-notch lawyers is defending Grace Poe – Romulo Macalintal, Katrina Legarda, and Lorna Kapunan.  Several legal experts led by former Supreme Court Chief Justice Art Panganiban share the opinion that Poe possesses the residency and citizenship qualifications.

WINNER or LOSER?

Winners usually face the issues, fight the challenge confidently and find solutions. Losers look for people to blame. What Grace faces are legitimate legal issues that should be properly resolved. Confronting Roxas if he is behind those questioning her qualifications is an action more appropriately attributed to a “loser”, sorry to say.

PNoy and Roxas offered her the Vice Presidency – convinced of her qualifications. I have expressed the view that while I find no problem defending her residency qualifications, I see the citizenship part to be a little bit tricky. But I made the Roxas-Poe tandem suggestion anyway, and actually proposed a couple of solutions for her legal problem that PNoy, Roxas, the LP and its allies in Congress could actually help deliver. These are actions of confidence on Poe and those of “winners” not “losers”.

The only relevant and accepted principle in International Law involving “foundlings” is the 1961 Convention on the Reduction of Statelessness. The problem is that the Philippines is neither a signatory nor has it acceded to it. The solution is for the Philippines to sign and accede to it or if it cannot be done immediately, take some steps that indicate acceptance to the principles that the convention provides.



There are two bills in the Senate that protect the rights of “foundlings” – that of Senator Poe and the other of Senator Lapid. Pushing the former would be perceived as self-serving but passing the latter with some amendments would be an added solution.

Either the international or domestic legal solution may turn out to be unnecessary but either guarantees a clearer interpretation and legal cover supporting Poe’s cause.

POLLS/Market Surveys

Polls like market surveys help measure the demand or marketability of the product that is for sale at the time the survey is taken. The numbers change depending on what the customers know about the product, the competition, the places surveyed, and the dates when the surveys were taken. It is about measuring the demand for the product as the people perceived it.

“Winners” take notice of the surveys and use them to devise or revise their sales and marketing plans. “Losers” rely on the surveys alone to determine the viability or marketability of their product. They do not consider the need for a broader distribution channel and a larger, organized, committed, and well-motivated sales force.

“Winners” plan, organize, lead and control efficiently and effectively. They recognize the need for well-oiled Machinery; sufficient Monetary and Material resources; a large and committed army of volunteers and paid Manpower; a clear, catchy, and resonating Message; and an efficient and competent campaign Management. Those who do not recognize these are “losers”. 


PNoy is a winner by all standards. He aptly portrays the meaning of this quote:


            “Watch your thoughts, they become words;

              Watch your words, they become actions;

              Watch your actions, they become habits;

              Watch your habits, they become character;

              Watch your character, for it becomes your destiny.”



His “Daang Matuwid”, “Walang corrupt, Walang mahirap,” and “Walang Wang-Wang” were words that became actions; actions that became habits through the GPS (Government Prosecution of the Sleazy); habits that built his character and those of his Cabinet led by the “Furies”; and a character that guides not only his personal destiny but also most especially that of the Filipino nation.

PNoy anointed Mar Roxas not only for the words that they share, but their common commitment to action. He is convinced that Roxas is “in the best position to continue the gains of Daang Matuwid.” 



Both personify the right character for the Presidency: Honesty, Humility, Hope, and Honor. PNoy has chosen a winner because he is a winner. The current surveys do not bother him. He will lead the strongest sales force or campaign machinery like no other. He and this machinery will promote his anointed “horse” by informing the public of his record and how he was and is an effective partner of the still unfinished “Daang Matuwid”.  He and Roxas will create a new and greater demand.

Grace Poe? She should start acting like a “winner”. She should not put things off. She should understand the value of time. Life is limited and every moment counts. Spending endless discussions with President Aquino and his potential successor Mar Roxas about her plans could have been spent more productively.

She claims to be preparing a “Platform of Government”. Running the Philippine Government with all its extensive bureaucracies is not running a Student Council. I know whereof I speak. PNoy and Roxas are offering her a winning, ready-made and successful platform resulting from experience, empirical studies and learning from mistakes. She is given 6 years to experience and learn the art of governance as preparation for an eventual Presidency.

For fear of being dubbed a “loser”, I am repeating my suggestion involving the Roxas-Poe tandem for the last time.

Grace Poe: Be a Winner!

2016: Age of Discernment

Pope Francis’ Prayer:

“On the President and people of this beloved land of the Philippines, I ask Almighty God abundant blessings of wisdom, discernment, prosperity and peace,”

DISCERNMENT

Discernment has been defined as ”little more than the ability to decide between truth and error... the ability to distinguish between right and wrong. It is the process of making careful distinctions in our thinking about truth. In other words, the ability to think with discernment is synonymous with an ability to think biblically.”

There are no ambiguities. If it is wrong for your Uncle Jojo, it is also wrong for Tiangko. If it was wrong yesterday, it is also wrong today.



The 2016 Presidential election requires enlightened discernment on the part of the country’s movers, shakers and sovereign people. This is why Pope Francis’ prayer for abundant blessings of discernment on the “President and people of this beloved land of the Philippines” was both timely and fortunate.



PNoy went through a process of discernment on this one as he has done on other significant issues during his entire tenure. But it carries greater weight because of its historical importance and its effect on current and future generations.

PNoy’s Endorsement of Mar Roxas:

“I trust that you are aware that a lot is at stake, and you can't just leave anything to chance – maybe they would continue what we started, maybe they would hold accountable those who are corrupt, maybe they would improve on the economic gains and delivery of services. Maybe they would remain on the straight path.

But for me, why would we be enticed by a 'maybe' when we have the sure thing? Number one, someone who's certainly competent, certainly with no other boss but the people, is not indebted to anyone, and certainly has no other interest but the nation's.”

Aquino also addressed Roxas' low popularity ratings, which he said would go up once he is "introduced well" to the people.

“If his current numbers are low, this only means we have to work harder on making him more well-known," the President said.

While a not so well known Mar Roxas has been generating a not so great a demand, a truly better described and promoted Mar Roxas as a “supply” would definitely create its own higher demand.



I wrote it before, and I am writing it again, “The next President of the Philippines is the one endorsed by PNoy.” This is, of course, based on the assumption that the necessary factors are in place – meaning, that Roxas does not take things for granted and that the LP Machinery, its supporters, its resources, and its Message are efficiently and effectively managed.

Many political pundits and analysts are of the view that historically, the endorsements of incumbent Presidents did not help their chosen candidates. Joe de Venecia who was endorsed by President Ramos lost. Fernando Poe, Jr. (FPJ) who was endorsed by President Estrada lost and President Arroyo’s candidate Gilbert Teodoro also lost.

Discerning certain facts belie such a historical analysis. First, President Cory Aquino helped Fidel Ramos win. PNoy would actually be repeating history. Second, when Presidents Ramos and Arroyo endorsed their candidates, each had a low net satisfaction rating of +19 and -17 respectively. Third, when Estrada endorsed FPJ, the former was detained and no longer in government. Furthermore, FPJ was cheated out of the presidency. Most importantly, PNoy has a net satisfaction rating of +30 and climbing. He has a successful record to boot, achievements attained, and reforms to be continued. He is an Aquino who is in full control of the government machinery and has the loyalty of the Yellow Army.

In an earlier column, (Read http://benmaynigo.blogspot.com/2012/08/mr-palengke-in-dilg.html), I suggested for all its worth, that Mar Roxas be put at the helm of DILG. I wrote, “As I mentioned above, if PNoy wants continuity and stability, he should put Roxas at the helm of DILG immediately. The latter has PNoy and Robredo as role models and standards. He would have about three years to meet, show, or if necessary be trained and molded to fulfill the required role. Macho he must be.

‘Since Robredo is a “tough act to follow”, it would be cowardice to avoid it. Roxas must accept the challenge. He must ask, in fact, demand that PNoy appoint him as DILG Chief. He must assert his leadership at the LP and get the party to endorse him precisely for the party’s and the country’s future.

‘I am convinced that it is in DILG that we can find a new generation of young leaders who would emulate PNoy, Robredo and possibly Roxas in preparing and instituting social, political and economic reforms for the sake of the current and the next generations.”

Roxas became the DILG Secretary. If he did what I expected he would do during his tenure, Roxas should be more than ready for the presidential battle. He can count on Pope Francis’ prayer and PNoy’s endorsement as additional blessings!

Binay’s SONA: Inept and Insensitive?

Jejomar Binay is Vice President of the Philippines. He won in 2010 because a group called NoyBi or Noynoy-Binay carried him. As Vice President he was given a couple of Cabinet positions and the luxurious Coconut Palace as his office.

He attended Cabinet meetings regularly and I assume that being a lawyer and receiving compensation for his jobs, he must have reported or participated in discussions. He did this for about 5 years interrupted only by the mid-term elections when, together with former President Erap Estrada and Senator Juan Ponce Enrile, they formed an alliance with the main objective of getting their children elected to the Senate. Nancy Binay and JV Ejercito won but Jack Enrile lost. Greg Honasan, an Enrile protégé, obtained the last Senatorial spot instead.

When Binay cut his ties with PNoy, he started attacking the latter as being “palpak” (inept) and  “manhid” (insensitive). He tried to prove it by delivering his own Contra-SONA without realizing that, in content and style, he and his team actually displayed their own ineptness and insensitivity.



First, he was expected to contradict the facts and figures presented by PNoy’s SONA. He could not. Argumentum contra factum non valet ilatio (Arguing against facts is an invalid inference).

Second, he was expected to give the Filipino people his version of the State of the Nation backed by incontrovertible facts and figures sourced from reliable and competent authorities. He did not.



Third, as Vice President he is only a breath away from the Presidency. He was Chairman of the HUDCC, the highest policy-making body for housing and was tasked to coordinate the activities of the government housing agencies and to make certain that the National Shelter Program is accomplished. He also sat as Chairman of the Board of Key Shelter Agencies to supervise the operations of the Home Guaranty Corporation (HGC), the Home Development Mutual Fund (HDMF) or more popularly known as Pag-ibig Fund, the National Housing Authority (NHA), the Housing and Land Use Regulatory Board (HLURB), the National Home Mortgage Finance Corporation (NHMFC) and its subsidiary, the Social Housing Finance Corpration (SHFC).

It would have been nice to hear from him a brief report on what he did for 5 years, the problems he encountered, and his recommendations for the future. Did he? NO.

Fourth, he was also a Presidential Advisor on OFW concerns. In fact, he scheduled trips abroad for the purpose of fulfilling this task. A report on the concerns would have been appropriate in his SONA. Did he give one? He did not!

Fifth, as a potential president, his SONA was expected to be inspirational and motivational. He was supposed to give much hope to the Filipino people as he accentuated the positive. True to form and displaying heights of insensitivity, he decided to be the “naysaying doom and gloom” leader focusing on places and cases that brought death and misery to a substantial number of people.


He cited four places: the Luneta; Yolanda; Zamboanga; and Mamasapano. 





a) The tragedy in Luneta happened 5 years ago when PNoy just took over as President. It resulted in the death of 8 Hong Kong tourists and injuries to several more.  Diplomatic means eventually resolved the row between the Hong Kong Government and the Philippines. The demands of the victims’ families were satisfied and diplomatic relations normalized.

A similar hostage crisis recently occurred in Juban, Sorsogon where Gallego Prayle, an Army man with an automatic M-16 rifle seized the Penafrancia bus carrying 55 passengers, its driver, and conductor. A crisis management committee was immediately created to resolve the situation. After a four-hour tense negotiation, Prayle surrendered.

Did Binay mention this in his SONA? VP Binay only wants the people to know when hostages are killed.

b) Yolanda was an “Act of God”. It was an event beyond human control. It was a natural disaster that devastated not just Tacloban, Leyte but many places in the Visayas as well. Amidst the disastrous effects on mankind, we correspondingly witnessed a great display of kindness by men, women, governments, and institutions. This display of great charity generated billions of dollars worth in cash, goods, and services most of which passed through private institutions like the Red Cross and others through a trusted and honest government.

Billions of government funds had been allocated for the reconstruction, recovery, and rehabilitation of the devastated areas. It is not finished. A lot more are in the pipeline.  Surveys show that Yolanda victims are very satisfied with PNoy’s performance. Yet true to form, VP Binay chose to accentuate the negative and completely disregarded the tireless efforts of people in the recovery plan.

c) What happened in Zamboanga is a continuation of a fight that has been going on for at least 4 decades. Government efforts drove the perpetrators away forcing them to go into hiding.  Reconstruction, recovery, and rehabilitation programs are currently implemented and should continue as the government pursues a more comprehensive and long-term peace agreement with the rebels.

VP Binay again chose the negative line. He cited incidence of rape and young women forced into prostitution in the evacuation centers. He is a lawyer and even touted as a human rights lawyer at that. It should not have been hard for him and his team to gather evidence and prosecute. Did he mention any solution in his SONA? NO!

d) The Mamasapano incident is still under criminal investigation as well as Senate probing. But VP Binay without regard to the feelings of the victims’ families chose to use it for political gains. The victims’ families have recently urged him to stop using the case for his political agenda.

The SAF 44 have been honored in many ways and the people are very appreciative of their supreme sacrifice. Supreme Court Chief Justice Sereno ordered flags to fly at half-mast in courthouses across the country as the judiciary mourned the massacre of elite police forces in Mindanao.

PNoy issued a Presidential Proclamation honoring the new heroes and scheduled a National Day of Mourning. He spent about 10 hours condoling with the surviving families. Everybody was unanimous in declaring the Fallen 44 as heroes - they “did not die in vain”.  Medals of Bravery were awarded to them.

“The package of benefits for families of slain Philippine National Police-Special Action Force (PNP-SAF) troopers includes: lifetime pension, gratuity equivalent to one year salary, additional pension for the next five years, Pag-Ibig Fund death benefits, insurance benefits, and commutation of leaves,”

BBL

The BBL is a proposed legislation that seeks to solve decades-old conflict involving our Muslim brothers. Of course, it has to be constitutional. So, if VP Binay has some proposed amendments to make certain that provisions are constitutional, then get Congressman Tiangko or his own daughter Abi to propose them.

DAP


VP Binay is now saying that he is opposed to the DAP or Disbursement Acceleration Program.  He claims, “Malinaw na ang DAP ang pinakamatingkad na halimbawa ng pagwawaldas sa pondo ng bayan sa ating kasaysayan. Ito rin ay isang lantarang paglabag at pagsuway sa ating Saligang Batas.” (It is clear that DAP is the greatest example of plundering government funds in history. It is obviously violative of the Constitution.)

Yet records show that two of the Key Shelter Agencies under his Chairmanship received P11.455B in DAP funds. His Alma Mater, University of the Philippines received P1.29B also in DAP funds. Is he saying plunder was committed? 


A re-read of the Supreme Court decision clearly reiterated the doctrine of operative fact, which presumes good faith in all acts and decisions made in relation to DAP. While it declared that certain acts are unconstitutional, it did not declare anybody guilty. In fact, if the said unconstitutional acts are avoided or corrected, DAP if needed, can be revived.

Most importantly, VP Binay has been accused of plunder and several corruption charges. His SONA would have been a good opportunity to counter the charges, inform the people and explain his side.  He did not.

His failure to do what was expected of him and his insistence in accentuating the negative, his allegations of “ineptness” and “insensitivity” backfired. His SONA proved it!